Oscars Predictions 2024

The nominees are in. There are films that people care about that are in the running, and there are films that didn’t make it that people think were snubbed. I like to predict what the winners will be, so that’s what I’m going to do here! I’ll also add my opinion of what I think should win.

Best Picture

I’m going to say… Oppenheimer. It held the buzz thanks to “Barbenheimer” and is definitely the better film between itself and Barbie. It is my favorite film of the year and I see it objectively as a very solid choice from a craft perspective. Killers of the Flower Moon would be my next guess, followed by Maestro and Anatomy of a Fall. I’m not sure why Barbie was nominated for this other than it being popular.

Best Leading Actor

Cillian Murphy received nothing but praise for his role in Oppenheimer and I understand why. So yeah, Cillian Murphy will likely be the winner here and who I’d personally pick as well. My next guesses would be Paul Giamatti, and maybe an upset by Bradley Cooper.

Best Supporting Actor

I think Robert Downey Jr. is the likeliest to win, followed by Robert De Niro. Other nominees feel pretty equal in my opinion, except for Ryan Gosling whose nomination, while funny, is unlikely to win.

Best Leading Actress

It’ll probably be Emma Stone. Maybe. Probably. My second guess is Lily Gladstone. As for who I think should win, probably Emma Stone.

Best Supporting Actress

Hmm. I think it’ll be Da’Vine Joy Randolph. My second guess would be Danielle Brooks. The others are otherwise equal in my eyes, and again there’s an exception in America Ferrera whose nomination isn’t really funny and is more sad. Ryan Gosling at least contributed something of value to Barbie, whereas America Ferrera did the opposite.

Best Director

Christopher Nolan is the likely winner as well as the deserved winner here. My second guess would be Martin Scorsese.

Best Animated Feature Film

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is what I predict will win as well as what I see deserving the win—of those nominated. Suzume remains the best animated film of the year in my eyes and deserving of this win, but it wasn’t nominated. The Boy and the Heron drew audiences and may be a contender for an upset given its popularity despite it being a bad film.

Best Adapted Screenplay

It makes sense for this to be consistent with the best picture, best director, best leading actor, and best supporting actor winners, so I think it’ll be Oppenheimer. Poor Things and American Fiction would be interesting winners, while Barbie is, again, an odd choice.

Best Original Screenplay

Honestly, I think this will be Anatomy of a Fall. The Holdovers would be my second guess.

Best Cinematography

Generally if Oppenheimer is a nominee it’ll likely be the winner. So yeah, Oppenheimer.

Best Costume Design

I know I just said if Oppenheimer is a nominee it’ll likely be the winner, but here I see it being likelier Killers of the Flower Moon or Napoleon. Between the two I’m leaning more towards Killers of the Flower Moon, though I could also see Barbie winning this as it’s really the only nomination that makes sense for the film.

Best Documentary Feature Film

I don’t know or care about these, so I’ll throw in a wild guess: Four Daughters.

Best Documentary Short Film

Again, don’t know or care: Island in Between.

Best Film Editing

Well, I suppose it could be Oppenheimer again, but the Oscars tend to throw curveballs when it comes to the editing categories… though I think it will be Oppenheimer. I also think it deserves it.

Best International Feature Film

I’ve no idea. Maybe Io Capitano.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Poor Things maybe? The others, even Oppenheimer, don’t really stand out to me.

Best Original Score

This will likely be Oppenheimer. However, what I think should win this is Suzume, but it wasn’t a nominee.

Best Original Song

I’m Just Ken won this in The Golden Globes, and—just kidding, I don’t think it’ll win here. It’ll probably be Wazhazhe. It Never Went Away would be an interesting choice. What I think should win this is a tossup between two songs that are both from Suzume: the first is just called Suzume and the second is called KANATA HALUKA. Yes, I think Suzume was done dirty by the Oscars.

Best Production Design

This I could see going to either Killers of the Flower Moon or Napoleon. I think I’d give the edge to Napoleon.

Best Animated Short Film

Uh. IDK. Letter to a Pig.

Best Live Action Short Film

Mmmm, I think The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar will win. That might be my Wes Anderson bias, but so be it.

Best Sound

Another among the editing categories that I think could be given to Oppenheimer. My guess for an upset choice would be Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One.

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And those are my predictions.